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G7 Principal Power Canada Shaping Global Order
John Kirton, G7 Research Group
April 2, 2026
Prepared for the Victoria CIC-Couchiching West Conference on
“Mobilizing Canada: Power, Partnerships and Purpose in the New Global Order”
at the University of Victoria on April 10, 2026
Canada is a G7 principal power, shaping global order, to advance Canada’s national interests and distinctive national values, in a more multipower world.
It is not a mere middle power, needing to combine with other middle powers, under the multilateral organizations and international law from the 1940s, to survive and thrive.
First, Carney said so, on his much-acclaimed speech to the World Economic Forum at Davos on January 20, 2026.
In his much-acclaimed Davos speech at the World Economic Forum in January, Carney accurately said that the old global order created in the 1940’s was now “ruptured.”
He correctly stated: “The multilateral institutions on which middle powers relied – the WTO [World Trade Organization], the UN, the COP [Conferences of the Parties to UN agreements] – the architecture of collective problem solving – are greatly diminished.”
To be sure, he diplomatically said, twice, that Canada was a middle power, knowing that most other leaders in his audience were from real middle powers.
But he then went on to say accurately, and at greater length, that Canada was much more than that.
He declared, as had Prime Minister Stephen Harper, that Canada is an “energy superpower” in a world where energy is central and causing crises.
Carney added: “We have the most educated population in the world. Our pension funds are amongst the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors. We have capital, talent and a government with the immense fiscal capacity to act decisively.”
He was the first leader of a country of consequence to take down the sign from the window to say so, leading other G7 leaders to take theirs down too.
Second, Canada is in the top tier of global power, on the capabilities that count today.
Indeed, the hard facts of objective capability bear Carney’s claims out, in an even bigger, broader way.
For Canada is now number one in the world in the critical capabilities of coastlines, freshwater, wetlands, trees, boreal forests, canola and the critical minerals of potash and (by some measures) uranium too (see Appendix A).
Canada is also number one globally in being loved, friendly, battery supply chains, education, travellers’ safety, crime-free, religious freedom, health care, economic optimism and trusting fellow citizens.
And if a country is number one in the world, a middle power it cannot be, for there is no one above for it to be in the middle of from those below in the international status hierarchy.
The Iran war that erupted February 28, 2026, made Canada more of a top-tier oil and gas power, as it cut off oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.
Within the G7, Canada and the United States are the only countries that possess, produce and export surplus oil and gas.
And Canada has surplus clean hydroelectricity and nuclear energy to export to the US, as the renewable revolution gathers force.
Third, Canada is turning its top-tier power into global leadership.
This was seen in Canada’s actions and achievements at and after its G7 Kananaskis Summit last year on June 15–17.
At Davos, Carney hit the highlights, saying “on critical minerals, we are forming buyer’s clubs anchored in the G7 so that the world can diversify away from concentrated supply.”
“On AI [artificial intelligence], we are cooperating with like-minded democracies to ensure we will not ultimately be forced to choose between hegemons and hyper-scalers.”
He added: “To help solve global problems, we are pursuing variable geometry – different configurations for different issues, based on our values and interests.”
“On Ukraine, we are a member of the Coalition of the Willing and one of the largest per-capita contributors to its defence and security.”
At the Kananaskis Summit, with Carney in the chair, there was more magic from the mountaintop.
Its leaders made 150 commitments, with US president Donald Trump actively and easily agreeing with everyone.
On quantum technologies it pioneered global governance, making 21 commitments on this subject.
On wildfires, the deadly extreme weather event intensified by climate change, it did so too, the making 13 commitments on that issue.
On AI, it built on Canada’s leadership on its global governance from Canada’s last G7 summit at Charlevoix in 2018, now adding 49 commitments.
On securing critical minerals it made major advances, producing 21 commitments there.
It followed up with agreements and action at the subsequent G7 ministerial meetings on energy and the environment, foreign affairs and technology.
With Carney travelling around the world after Davos, it added new partnerships with China, India and Japan.
And ten days after the war in Iran erupted, Canada was sending it surplus oil and gas to distant, energy-dependent India.
Fourth, Canada has several opportunities to shape global order in the years ahead.
And to do so again to advance Canada’s national interests and distinctive national values in a competitive world of sovereign states.
Canada, as all countries, must always defend and advance its national interests of survival, security, sovereignty, legitimacy, territory and relative capability.
Once it has done so, it can use its surplus capabilities to advance its distinctive national values – of anti-militarism, openness, multiculturalism, environmentalism, globalism and international institutionalization.
At Davos Carney noted some, saying: “other countries … like Canada … have the power to build a new world order that integrates values, like respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty and the territorial integrity of states.” He went on to say: “And we have the values to which many others aspire.”
He could have added gender equality and Indigenous reconciliation.
Of the many initiatives that could mobilize Canada’s capabilities and values to shape global order to meet urgent global needs, two stand out (see Appendix B).
The first is to create new international organizations for natural gas, as the International Energy Agency has for oil, and the clean critical minerals needed for the renewables revolution and national security too.
The second initiative, amid the Trump-initiated trade wars and the new Canada-US-Mexico Agreement negotiations, is to produce what Carney proclaimed at Davos when he said “on plurilateral trade, we are championing efforts to build a bridge between the Trans Pacific Partnership and the European Union.”
Canada and Japan pioneered the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The United Kingdom joined. The United States has not. We could get the whole European Union too, to create by far the largest free trade area in the world.
As those in Victoria, British Columbia, know more than anyone, Canada is geographically an Atlantic as well as a Pacific and Arctic power, and we should express that identity in our global economic life.
March 30, 2026
“We are an energy superpower.” (Davos, January 20, 2026; Mumbai, February 28, 2026)
“We hold vast reserves of critical minerals.” (Davos, January 20, 2026)
“Canada … has one of the largest critical minerals reserves in the world – we are abundant in those minerals most in demand and most necessary for military and economic strength. We are building out our critical minerals alliance with Australia, creating the largest minerals reserve held by trusted democratic nations.
“Together, we produce more than one third of global lithium, a third of uranium supply, more than 40% of iron ore, and a combined $25 billion war chest to fast-track projects. Globally, we are number one and number two as the most attractive mining investment jurisdictions in the world.” (Lowy Institute, March 4, 2026)
“The first is critical minerals. Canada and Australia are the world’s two most reliable and like-minded mining giants. We are both committed to sustainability. We have each developed the most advanced extractive ecosystems from prospecting to engineering, logistics, and capital markets.
“We are both rich in the foundational metals that power the batteries, electric vehicles, smartphones, and the AI systems of this century.
“Together, we produce one-third of global lithium and uranium, 40% of iron ore, and have a combined war chest of over $25 billion to fast-track projects. Globally, we are number one and number two as the most attractive mining investment jurisdictions in the world.
“We are the world’s critical mineral superpowers.” (Australian Parliament, March 5, 2026)
“We have the most educated population in the world.” (Davos, January 20, 2026)
“Our pension funds are amongst the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors.” (Davos, January 20, 2026)
“Our pension funds are some of the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors.” (Mumbai, February 28, 2026)
“Our pension funds and your supers constitute one of the largest pools of capital in the world with nearly $7 trillion under management and growing fast.” (Australian Parliament, March 5, 2026)
“Our government, which is AAA-rated, has immense fiscal capacity to act decisively.” (Mumbai, February 28, 2026)
“Artificial intelligence (AI) is a third example … Canada is well placed. We are the number one global destination for master’s and doctoral graduates, produce some of the world’s most renowned AI developers, and are home to leading AI institutes and AI start-ups.” (Australian Parliament, March 5, 2026)
April 2, 2026
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