Kotris: Mark Carney's Prospects as Chair of the 2025 Kananaskis G7 Summit

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Mark Carney's Prospects as Chair of the 2025 Kananaskis G7 Summit

Kathryn Kotris, G7 Research Group
May 10, 2025

Canada holds the G7’s rotating presidency for 2025 and therefore has the responsibility of hosting the G7 summit, chaired by Prime Minister Mark Carney, elected for the first time on April 28. A global financial crisis set the conditions for the initial summit 50 years ago and the prospect of yet another financial crisis could well preoccupy the leaders at their summit this year in Kananaskis on June 15–17.

In November 1975, the leaders of the United States, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy met in Rambouillet, France, to coordinate solutions to rein in global inflation and a recession caused by the oil embargo imposed by Middle Eastern oil producers in retaliation for those countries’ support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The intersection of war, energy, trade interdependence and diplomacy were entwined at the start. The Rambouillet leaders defined the distinctive mission of their group as protecting and promoting the principles of open democracy, individual liberty and social advance. The G7 summit was institutionalized the following year, at the San Juan Summit hosted by the US in Puerto Rico. Canada’s leader was now there as a full member of this elite, compact club.

The G7 has historically risen to the heights of successful diplomacy and prescriptive policy coordination over the past 50 years by devising solutions to global issues and managing crises of many kinds. The current embryonic financial crisis is quite different, however, as its origins flow not from the usual suspects of imprudent, irrational financial overindulgence within under-regulated capital markets. The culprit now is a state actor and indeed the world’s most powerful country: the United States. US president Donald Trump has unilaterally imposed illegal tariffs on every country regardless of existing trade agreements. He has also revoked US agreements with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations, and upended the post-war global order that the US helped create and has long benefited from.

The Kananaskis Summit will be the first international meeting with democratic partners at which Trump will be held accountable by a large group of leaders, with French president Emmanuel Macron the most senior. The agenda at this summit will likely be dominated by discussions on trade, global energy security, global health, and Ukraine and Gaza but from very different standpoints as the new US administration is dismantling some G7 commitments and putting the world at risk of future pandemics and conflict in addition to the economic crisis already underway.

Carney is uniquely qualified to chair this crucial summit. As a senior associate deputy minister in Canada’s Department of Finance from 2004 to 2007, he helped draft G7 and G20 communiqués and actively participated in numerous G7 and G20 meetings as governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and then as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. Over those years he successfully managed the two serious crises of the 2008 global financial crisis and then Brexit. No training wheels are required. Canada’s new prime minister will be a tour de force in leading the mission to find common ground with a relatively new cohort of leaders, in resolving the many crucial matters on the agenda.

Successful ministerial meetings have already set the process in motion. A new Cabinet will be in place and engaged in crafting legislation and policies outlined in the Liberal Party election platform. The G7 agenda may very well reflect the campaign policy prescriptions, which mirror existing G7 priorities such as expanding trade under the agreements Canada has with every G7 partner and numerous other countries. The US may be made aware that its hegemonic status is not omnipotent, as alternative trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – which Trump opted out of – can be enhanced as the US becomes more isolationist. The Trade in Services Agreement is among many other agreements, including environmental agreements, that are available.

An experienced economic crisis manager such as Carney may very well use this G7 summit as an opportunity to catalyze bold measures that intersect and complement one another, such as trade, environmental sustainability and health. Increasing trade with new partners by identifying and developing comparative advantages in developing countries, while continuing to support the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, could be part of the agenda. Sustainable development initiatives could include building affordable housing across the world by scaling up previously created G7 forums such as the International Partnership for Energy Efficiency and the Sustainable Building Network, to assist with efficient strategies to address the global housing shortage and the migration and refugee crisis. Carney’s domestic agenda has prioritized housing as a human right and an economic mobilizer, which could be extended globally. Addressing the ravages of a changing climate by mobilizing capital investments directed to new efficient and resilient green technology, including small modular nuclear reactors, and enhancing economic development and productivity is an area of expertise for the prime minister. His work as United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance since 2020 may help translate more specific environmental solutions into deliverable commitments.

As a witness to the casualties of economic collapse, Carney will undoubtedly continue to honour the G7’s commitment to international food security and to enhancing climate resilience, assisted by the Apulia Food Systems Initiative launched at the 2024 Apulia Summit. Canada is expected to continue to support the commitments to women’s empowerment and gender equality made the last time Canada hosted the G7, at the 2018 Charlevoix Summit, and reaffirmed at Apulia.

Having high-level experience in the private and public sectors, Carney has an in-depth understanding of how to mobilize the financial mechanisms required to launch ambitious global projects to advance the next industrial revolution that includes artificial intelligence as a public good, as well as producing commercial benefits that reward capital investments. And as the former chair of the Financial Stability Board, a G20 initiative, from 2011 to 2018, Carney became acquainted with the intimate details of the world’s financial status. As new investment vehicles are launched to embark on innovative research and development of sophisticated new technology, a strong regulatory regime is required that can enforce the rule of law. The rapid advancement of AI serves to provide increased global benefits but at great risk if a strict global regulatory regime is not adhered to. Pope Francis eloquently discussed the moral hazard of AI at the G7 summit in Apulia last year, a view that which Carney will undoubtedly respect and support.

The G7 has consistently supported Ukraine to protect its sovereignty throughout the devastating years of Russia’s illegal invasion since 2014. Financial and military support is expected to continue and indeed more vigorous engagement may be agreed to under Carney’s leadership. The European Union and Canada have increased their assistance and commitment to Ukraine as the US retreats. G7 leaders may agree to participate in peace talks in a more compelling way as Macron together with the new German chancellor Friedrich Merz and British prime minister Keir Starmer increase their efforts. Increased concern with the tension between India and Pakistan will be a new feature on the agenda, and the dire situation in Gaza will most definitely be addressed with new resolve and ideas offered by the new leaders. Much will have to be discussed to create solutions to mitigate the fragmenting global order and foster peace and stability in conflict zones.

The agenda for the 50th anniversary G7 meeting will be unlike any other, due to the intransigence and unreliability of Trump, the leader of the most important member. Carney and his fellow leaders will meet as a group for the first time and, combined with bilateral meetings among them, may have established auspicious priorities for which there can be a successful outcome. But highly skilled diplomacy and realpolitik will have to be simultaneously manoeuvred to achieve consensus agreements to initiatives and to a communiqué or leaders’ statement – the hallmark of the G7 and its founding principles.

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