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An Expansive Democratic Success:
Prospects for the UK's 2021 G7 Cornwall Summit
John Kirton, G7 Research Group
June 7, 2021
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The 47th annual G7 summit, taking place on 11–13 June 2021 at Carbis Bay in Cornwall on the United Kingdom's Atlantic coast, is an unusually significant event. It is the first regular G7 summit and the first in-person G7 summit in almost two years, after the last one in August 2019 in Biarritz, France. It features unusually close coordination between British prime minister Boris Johnson as G7 host and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi as host of the G20 summit in Rome on October 30–31. Both leaders will co-host the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, on November 1–12. Cornwall is also the first summit of the "Democratic 10," with G7 leaders reinforced by those from India, Australia, Korea and South Africa, meeting together on the summit's final day.
Cornwall is the first regular, in-person G7 summit for the new U.S. president Joe Biden and Mario Draghi, both bringing great international experience in the central issues Cornwall confronts, as well as Japan's Yoshihide Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe in September 2020. It is the last G7 summit for its longest serving veteran and G7 host, Angela Merkel, who retires as Germany's chancellor in the autumn after 17 previous summits, including the ad hoc virtual ones on March 26 and April 26, 2020, and on February 19, 2021. Host Johnson will be participating in his third summit, including the one he chaired virtually in February. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is participating in his eighth, and French president Emmanuel Macron is at his seventh. Draghi, Suga and Biden all participated in the Virtual Summit in February, as did the European Union's Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen, who came into office in December 2020.
These leaders confront unprecedentedly severe, urgent and interconnected crises across a vast domain. COVID-19 comes first, with new waves and variants creating new highs in cases and deaths in India and other poor countries and regions of the world. Commerce comes second, covering the economy, finance, trade, jobs and development, as these waves of COVID-19 cripple the robust recovery recently underway. Climate change comes third, as this existential threat has now reached critical tipping points. Conflict and competition in political-security pervade everything, as Russia and China, weapons of mass destruction in Iran and North Korea, and regional security threats around the world imperil economic, social and ecological progress and the open democracy and human rights that the G7 was created to preserve and promote.
Not since the G7 summit's first decade from 1975 to 1985 have its leaders confronted such urgent, deadly, catastrophic, intensely interrelated crises on so many fronts all at once. But now they uniquely come from not just from known state actors in the political world, but also far more from non-state and even non-human actors from the natural world in the form of COVID-19 and, above all, climate change.
As the United Kingdom's year as G7 host approached and unfolded, the prospects for its summit's performance was the subject of a growing debate among several schools of thought.
The first school saw strengthened D10 democratic preparedness for future pandemics, free trade and climate change control, due to Biden replacing Trump as U.S. president and the pull of the UN climate summit in Glasgow in November. Stewart Patrick (2020) judged that with Trump and thus Russia president Vladimir Putin as his desired G7 guest gone, the UK's invitees of Australia, India and Korea could become a "democratic ten" that "could provide a Western counterweight to China's growing influence." He predicted that "the UK will likely use its G7 presidency to strengthen global preparedness for future pandemics, to promote free trade in the wake of Brexit, and to encourage ambitious greenhouse gas reduction pledges in advance of the November climate summit in Glasgow." James Forsyth (2020) largely agreed, cautioning that there could be friction between Biden and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and that Johnson saw COVID-19 eclipsing everything he had wanted to do in 2020. The Economist (2020) concluded that "a grouping like an enlarged G7 would be more adaptable and less clumsy" than institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or the World Trade Organization (WTO) to counter China.
The second school saw favourable conditions for success. As 2020 began, Camilla Cavendish (2021) wrote that "Boris Johnson has a chance to … reset the tone, when Britain chairs the G7 summit next year and hosts the UN COP 26 climate summit in November." These favourable conditions were due to Johnson's hosting, the pull of the supporting UN Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting, and the UK's partnership with likeminded countries and the EU in its "desire to combat climate change, Islamic extremism, Russian meddling and Chinese incursions into human rights."
The third school saw potential British-led success, due to Johnson and effective vaccination campaigns. Hugo Dobson (2020) concluded: "if Bojo can regain his mojo in terms of his personal skills, and with a vaccine on the way that might improve the overarching context, he has the potential to provide much needed leadership at the G7." More expansively, The Economist (2021) concluded: "In 2021 Britain in chairing the G7 and hosting the COP 26 summit on climate change, both opportunities to shine." It cited as causes the UK's "membership of NATO, the G7, G20, the Commonwealth, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council," its nuclear weapons and capable army and expectations that it will be "the biggest defence spender in NATO" per capita; "it also has an abundance of soft power" through foreign aid and "able scientists, prominent in developing vaccines." As constraints it cited its COVID-19 management early on, Brexit and Scottish independence, its puny team to prepare for Glasgow and its recent aid cuts. The Economist (2021a) added the assets of its fifth-ranked economy, one of five nuclear powers, its signals-intelligence service and Five Eyes membership, extensive overseas territories, the Queen as head of the 54-member Commonwealth, the Anglican Communion as the world's third largest Christian church, its status as "the biggest voluntary contributor to the World Health Organisation and to GAVI, the global vaccine alliance," its BBC and universities, and Johnson's experience as a foreign minister.
The fourth school saw an opportunity for success on climate change. The Times (2020) wrote that "Britain has access to some big shop windows next year. It will host the COP26 UN climate change conference, along with the annual meeting of the G7" and could and should use them to show its proclaimed global leadership now that it had got Brexit done. A U.S. leadership variant saw an opportunity for U.S.-led success on climate change. Derek Walker (2020) wrote: "Beyond the Paris Agreement, opportunities are ripe to marshal the full power and influence of American leadership around the world to promote climate ambition. That means advocating for climate action in key forums like the G7 and G20."
The fifth, more cautious, school had low expectations beyond setting a vision and laying a few bricks for defending democratic values. Matthew Goodman (2021) said to do so, it must show a Global Britain with substance, foster U.S.-European cooperation, and defend democratic international rules and norms against attacks by authoritarian China and Russia, and make progress on development, girls education, food security, health, sustainable development financing and data governance.
The sixth, even more skeptical, school saw a tough task and test for Johnson in making the G7 a success. George Parker (2021b), considering the G7 and UN climate summits, judged that "it will not be easy" for Johnson to "stage two high profile global events in one year, not just to promote global cooperation but to burnish his own reputation at home and abroad." Johnson ambitiously planned that his virtual G7 summit in February and in-person one in June, plus a pre-summit tour to escape from COVID-19 (later cancelled), would roll out vaccines, prepare for future pandemics, build back better, produce a G7 stepping stone to the Glasgow climate summit by investing in green technology, lead the thrust toward global net zero, remind Scotland of the value of staying in the United Kingdom and foster a D10 with Biden. But he would be constrained by Britain's withdrawal from the European Union and his own strained relationship with Biden over this and other issues. The variation of a needed "coherent, affordable vision" noted the constraints of Brexit, Russia and China; Johnson's Trumpian populist reputation with Biden; differences over terrorism, migration and nuclear proliferation; the UK's cuts in official development assistance (Financial Times 2021c). These were offset by the UK's top-tier defence, intelligence and diplomatic capabilities, and, above all, its membership in "important clubs from the UN Security Council and the Commonwealth to the Group of Seven industrialized democracies, and the so-called 'Five Eyes' intelligence group" along with its chairing of COP26 (Financial Times 2021c).
The seventh school more broadly saw Cornwall's success constrained by domestic democratic distraction in the United States. The Financial Times (2021b), following the January 6 coup attempt on the Capitol, editorialized that "one of Mr Biden's foreign policy goals is to create a summit of democracies, which would convene as soon as this spring. Now it could backfire. It would be better to delay the initiative until he has made progress in putting America's house in order."
These schools largely agreed that the key causes of prospective or possible success were the personal and policy commitments of the U.S. president and of the UK summit host, the pull of a landmark UN climate summit, and the threats from China and Russia to the democratic likeminded members of the G7. Yet they did not account for the shock-activated vulnerability from the COVID-19 pandemic's surging subsequent waves in late spring, the new digital mega cyber shock from Russia on the United States, divisions among G7 members over China and Russia, the way the forthcoming UN summit could let the earlier G7 summit leave the tough global issue of climate change to the United Nations, and the constrained relative capability and domestic political support that Boris Johnson and Joe Biden might have. Moreover, their predictions were not based on a coherent, tested model of what breeds G7 summit success and how the conditions and prospects for the G7's Cornwall Summit compared to the 46 ones held before it since 1975. This research report fills these analytical and empirical gaps.
Cornwall's leaders will probably produce a summit of strong success. They will make major advances in countering COVID-19, the contraction of commerce and climate change, and assaults on democracy in their countries and democratic partners from China, Russia and some inside the United States itself. On COVID-19 they will finally pave a way to get vaccines to all who need them everywhere, help countries produce their own, and foster higher quality, more universal healthcare systems to all. On commerce, they will deal with their own surging deficits, debts, inflation and interest rates, and debt burdens and defaults in poorer countries, by agreeing on a fairer international tax system and more financial assistance through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, whose executive boards they control. On climate change they will agree to act very soon to end international coal financing, fossil fuel subsidies and methane emissions, and they will improve climate finance standards for their own firms and mobilize nature-based solutions from reliable renewables and carbon sinks on land and in the sea. They will declare that new attacks on democracy, human rights or other's territories will not succeed. Their biggest challenge will be sending this message to China and Russia, while having them work with the G7 and D10 to control climate change, COVID-19 and nuclear proliferation before it is too late.
The Cornwall Summit's strong success will be spurred first by the several severe shocks showing unprecedented G7 vulnerabilities in health, the economy, the environment and democracy and the inability of the World Health Organization (WHO), IMF, World Bank, UN Climate, and UN to cope on their own. Another spur is the G7's intimate cooperation with a G20 led by G7 member Italy and bringing highly matched summit priorities. The G7's overall capabilities strengthen as its members lift the COVID-19–created lockdowns, while its leading specialized capabilities in health and finance expand, as its invention of COVID-19 vaccines in record time are followed by projects to create newer ones. Internally, the relative decline in U.S. capabilities as its G7 partners start to grow engenders the equality that breeds cooperation and success. The replacement of Donald Trump by Joe Biden in the United States, the most powerful G7 member, and the end of the Trump-inspired coup attempt on January 6, restore the G7's political convergence on its democratic core and the domestic political support of a U.S. president now committed to G7 success. The G7's status as a personally cherished club at the hub of an expanding network of global summit governance is strengthened by the return of in-person summitry, the emergence of a G7-centred D10, and the intense sequence of G7 and G7-centred summits in the lead-up to and after Cornwall.
The United Kingdom started from a firm foundation of serving as a G7 founder and having hosted six increasingly successful summits in 1977, 1984, 1991, 1998, 2005 and 2013 (Bayne 2020; Dobson 2020; Kulik 2020) (see Appendix A). It was present at the creation of, and indeed hosted, the first embryonic G7 summit, held over lunch in the British embassy in Helsinki in July 1975, along with the leaders of the US, France and Germany. But the UK's increasing G7 summit success come from preparing and producing its summits in a particular way. It begins with its inherited global vision and skill in producing and reforming the world first global plurilateral summit institution — the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, now held every two years and connecting the British prime minister directly with the leaders of 54 multidimensionally diverse leaders from countries all around the world. It adds the similar inheritance from co-founding NATO and serving in its inner core of the "Berlin dinner four," with the first NATO summit held in 1957. The next NATO summit takes place on June 14, the day after the Cornwall Summit ends, with all G7 leaders save Suga of Japan going directly to Brussels.
The UK has often led in reforming the G7 summit institution, to make it a more powerful club personally cherished by the leaders. For London Summit in 1991, the UK held the first collective meeting with a guest, inviting a reforming Michael Gorbachev from the Soviet Union for an immediate post-G7 summit session. For Birmingham in 1988, the UK launched leaders-only summitry, without finance and foreign ministers there, and welcomed Russia to the new G8. For Gleneagles in 2005 it launched the G8 plus G5, with the leaders of India, South Africa, China, Brazil and Mexico there. Continuing this largely democratizing outreach tradition, the leaders of India and South Africa, pioneers of the modern, multi-racial Commonwealth, will participate in the Cornwall Summit once again, along with the leaders of Commonwealth member Australia, at its third consecutive G7 summit, and of Korea.
UK-hosted summits tend to be small, informal, kitchen table–like gatherings, devoid of the formal pageantry pioneered by the French at Versailles in 1982 and the Paris Summit of the Arche in July 1989. The UK tends to prepare its summit three years in advance, as do Canada and Japan, but unlike the U.S., where serious thinking starts much closer to the event. The UK prefers a sharp focus on a few specific themes, such as the trilogy of jobs, crime and money at Birmingham in 1998, debt, aid and AIDS at Gleneagles in 2005, and trade, tax and transparency at Lough Erne in 2013. The British have the self-confidence that if they lead with big bold initiatives, all their G7 partners will follow in the end, even U.S. Republican presidents skeptical of British priorities such as climate change (as at Gleneagles in 2005). And as masters of the English language, they prefer short communiqués, written in simple language that the people who put and keep the democratically elected leaders in their jobs can easily understand.
Johnson set at an early stage his summit priorities, which meet the key needs of today. They were first publically presented in his video address to the United Nations General Assembly on September 23, 2020 (see Appendix B). There he was poised to "outline an ambition to use the UK's G7 presidency … to implement a five-point plan to prevent future pandemics and global health crises" (Gross and Pickard 2020). It consisted of zoonotic research hubs, vaccine manufacturing hubs, a pandemic early warning system, emergency response protocols, and minimum export controls. He added a sixth priority on climate change, in support of the UN's Glasgow Summit in November.
His first point was "to stop a new disease before it starts … by forging a global network of zoonotic research hubs, charged with spotting dangerous animal pathogens that may cross the species barrier and infect human beings and … assemble an armoury of therapies — a global pharmacopoeia — ready to make the treatment for the next COVID-19." The second was to "develop the manufacturing capacity for treatments and vaccines." The third was "to design a global pandemic early warning system, based on a vast expansion of our ability to collect and analyse samples and distribute the findings, using health data-sharing agreements covering every country." The fourth was to "have all the protocols ready for an emergency response, covering every relevant issue, along with the ability to devise new ones swiftly." The fifth point, on trade, was to "lift the export controls wherever possible — and agree not to revive them — and cancel any tariffs on the vital tools of our struggle: gloves, protective equipment, thermometers and other COVID-critical products." On climate change he noted that Britain would lead "as we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of this great United Nations in London in January, and through our G7 Presidency, and as we host the world's climate change summit, COP26, in Glasgow next November." Thus COVID-19 and climate change would be the central priorities at Cornwall, and the signature standards by which its achievements would be judged.
On January 1, 2021, the UK assumed the annual presidency of the G7 and the responsibility for designing and delivery its scheduled summit, expected to take place in mid-June in England, prospectively in an in-person form (Parker 2021b; Patrick 2020; Nardelli 2021). On January 16, the government announced that the summit would indeed take place at Carbis Bay, a beach resort near St. Ives in a relatively COVID-19–unafflicted Cornwall, on the Atlantic coast of southwest England, as a three-day weekend event from Friday, June 11, to Sunday, June 13 (Holder and Santora 2021).
To secure such success, the UK participated in and launched several supportive plurilateral summits. On climate change France's Emmanuel Macron hosted the One Planet Summit on January 11, followed by Climate Adaptation Summit on January 25–26 hosted by EU member the Netherlands, and then Biden's Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22–23. To get off to a fast start and to get Biden engaged right away, Johnson held a special G7 summit on February 19.
On January 12, it was reported that Johnson planned to hold an special virtual G7 summit at the end of February, after the inauguration of Joe Biden (Nardelli 2021). Here Johnson could present his priorities and agenda for his regular summit, thought to focus on promoting democratic values and human rights, and a united front on China. The special virtual summit would focus on the immediate response to the COVID-19 crisis. On January 12, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab (2021) noted in Parliament the UK's crucial role on open societies, human rights, climate change and the COVID-19 response. On February 13, the UK announced that Johnson would host a virtual summit on February 19, to focus on international cooperation on vaccine distribution and pandemic preparedness and would "call for leaders to work together on a joined-up global approach to pandemics that brings an end to the nationalist and divisive politics that marred the initial response to coronavirus" (Prime Minister's Office 2021).
The G7's February 19 virtual summit was a substantial success (Kirton 2021c, d, e). It took place very early, almost a month before its equivalent the previous year hosted by U.S. Donald Trump on March 16, 2020. It attracted all the G7 leaders, including the three new ones who were easily integrated into discussions that were as informal and spontaneous as the digital format allowed. Leaders issued a collective communiqué that contained 27 commitments, with 85% being highly binding ones (Kirton 2021d).
The summit immediately mobilized money for COVAX and the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator (ACT-A), so vaccines could soon flow to the poor countries and people beyond the G7. It strongly supported the WHO amid doubts about its pandemic response. It made new commitments to control climate change, and to make the UN's Glasgow summit a success. It clearly signalled an engagement-first approach to China. Yet it did little to guide a coordinated jobs-rich, green economic recovery, or to publicly address the many acute political security concerns in China and elsewhere.
This substantial success in process and substance was propelled primarily by the shock-activated vulnerabilities of COVID-19's new variants emerging inside the G7 in its UK host and outside in South Africa and Brazil. Recent climate shocks in 2021 affected several G7 members, above all when the lower 48 states of the United States were struck by a deadly freeze and snowstorm, just before and during the summit itself. The shocking attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6 showed the vulnerability of the United States and the democratic principles and practices that G7 members shared.
Multilateral organization failure arose from the failure of the WHO and COVAX on their own to get enough vaccines to poor countries fast enough and the failure of the several, separated environmental organizations to control the climate shocks. Yet a supporting pull came from the G20 summit scheduled for October and the UN's climate summit in November. The G7's global predominance in the invention and possession of safe, fully tested, effective vaccines, and the internal lead of the U.S., UK and Germany incentivized a collective G7 response, spurred by vaccine competition from China and Russia in ways reminiscent of the Cold War. The broader competition from these BRICS rivals, where democracy was declining amid protests in Russia, reinforced the G7's convergence on democratic principles, recently strengthened by Biden replacing Trump. Political cohesion was solid, as the new leaders from the United States, Italy and Japan enjoyed their honeymoon period, despite their uncertain legislative control and domestic popularity over the longer term.
Above all, leaders at the first G7 summit in 10 months, cherished their club at the hub of an expanding network of global summit governance in 2021, with the United Kingdom, United States and Italy at the core. And the centre stood Boris Johnson, who presciently had put in place in September 2020 a plan designed to bring out the best of the G7's global leadership, with Joe Biden's America adjusting to its partners on the central issues of COVID-19 and climate change.
Further momentum came from the high compliance of the United Kingdom and G7 members with their 20 priority commitments made at their last summit with public results, held on March 16, 2020. Just before the Cornwall Summit, G7 members' compliance had reach and unprecedented peak of 94%. Compliance with the 11 assessed ones on COVID-19 was 98%. Complete compliance of 100% came with nine commitments, including one on delaying the spread of COVID-19 with 93% and another on data sharing with 81%. Such virtually complete compliance convergence at such a high level had seldom been achieved before.
The results of the intense set of pre-summit G7 ministerial meetings mounted by the UK mounted also intensified the momentum. Finance ministers and central bankers on 12 February, 19 March, 2 April and 28 May, followed by the finance ministers meeting in person in London on June 4–5. Health ministers met on 29 March and in person in Oxford on June 3–4. Trade ministers met on March 31 and again on May 28. Transport ministers met on March 31 and again on May 5 virtually. Foreign affairs and development ministers met in person in London on May 4–5. Environment ministers met virtually on May 20-21, and the chief veterinarians met on May 4. Ministers responsible for the digital economy and technology met on April 28.
On May 5–6, the foreign ministers assembled in London for the first in-person G7 meeting since 2019, with the development ministers participating in virtual form (Kirton 2021a, b). They took several significant steps, producing a strong performance in its own right and promising prospects for their leaders' summit in Cornwall five weeks later. They covered an unusually wide range of issues, both to meet clear and present dangers and to prepare the way for the G7 summit in Cornwall five short weeks later. They had already issued statements throughout the year, responding to developing situations in Russia, Belarus, Myanmar, Ukraine, Tigray and Hong Kong.
In their main communiqué they made 162 commitments, with nine of them on climate change.
Moreover, the mere fact that the meeting took place in person provided powerful proof that the COVID-19 pandemic was being beaten in the G7 and other parts of the world and that full success could come soon. This progress was based on G7 members' scientific superiority in trusted vaccine invention, production and distribution, their democratic values that balanced individual freedom and choice with the collective public good, and their democratically elected leaders who were governing more effectively than their non-democratic rivals of China and Russia, with vaccines of their own. By early May, the G7, led by the United Kingdom and United States, started to share their vaccines and other health supplies with other struggling countries, as the European Union had done from the start and the US did with neighbouring Canada and Mexico several weeks earlier.
Another achievement was the transition from a year of degraded digital diplomacy to in-person governance, where real communication could take place in real time and real trust could thus be built. Informal chats allowed for more ambitious and even spontaneously constructed agreements among participants who can transcend the different time zones and the digital interruptions that inevitably come from virtual meetings.
Major momentum came from the meeting of G7 climate and environment ministers on May 20-21 (Warren and Kirton 2021). It was hosted jointly by Alok Sharma, the UK minister responsible for COP 26 and by UK environment minister George Eustace, showing that the G7 and UN were offering combined leadership. The unusually long and broad communiqué contained 183 commitments, more than twice as many as any G7 environment ministerial had made, surpassing their previous peaks at Metz, France, in 2019 and Halifax, Canada, in 2018. Two thirds of the commitments were highly binding ones. Commitments covered a broad range of subjects, with robust attention to nature-based solutions including 10 in forests and one on peatlands for the first time. The communiqué made three affirmations of the rights of Indigenous peoples, local communities, women and marginalized groups. Several bold climate change commitments stood out, including using only a 1.5°C temperature rise as the goal, ending direct financing of thermal coal power plants in developing countries in 2021, and protecting 30% of nature by 2030. The presence and historically highly productive decisional performance of this meeting suggested that the Cornwall Summit would have a similarly high decisional performance on climate change, both in the number of commitments it made and in members compliance with them (Warren 2021).
At Oxford on June 3–4, the health ministers made 53 commitments. They focused on COVID-19 but also addressed anti-microbial resistance (AMR) and several other illnesses, including mental health. They also forged a clear link between health and climate, which their earlier meetings and leaders summits seldom did.
Meeting at Lancaster House in London on June 4-5, G7 finance ministers reached several important agreements. The first was on a minimum tax of at least 15% for firms operating in their countries and governments taxing 20% of firms' profits, above a 10% minimum, in the country where their sales and thus profits were made. The second was on the mandatory disclosure of climate risks by their financial firms and other firms. The third was coordinated climate and environmental impact assessments from their firms. These agreements provided a promising foundation for the leaders to endorse or improve at Cornwall, for the broader G20 to accept at their Rome Summit and, indeed, for the full UN to possibly use at the Glasgow Summit in November.
Finance ministers made 44 commitments, led by climate change with 13. This was followed by development with nine, health, the economy, tax, and digitalization with five each, and biodiversity and crime with one each. The COVID-19 crowd-out had clearly crumbled, as the climate crisis dominated. It was striking that G7 finance ministers, following their environment colleagues on May 21, also put climate change first and added biodiversity and nature-based solutions too.
Moreover, the finance communiqué also made 10 references to the G20, far more than ever before, with four references to development, two to tax, and one each to climate change, health, digitalization and crime. These both led and supported the G20's work. This showed the high coordination between the G7 and G20 in 2021 and across a broad range of priority subjects. It enhanced the prospects for high performance at the G20 summit in Rome. Moreover, the passages on climate change referenced COP26 three times, suggesting that this high G7-G20 coordination extended to the UN for its Glasgow Summit too.
On Saturday, June 6, five days before the summit started, the UK publicly announced its priorities and implicitly the prospective performance of the event (see Appendix C). It is likely that the UK announced them as part of its clear, credible communications strategy, knowing these priorities had been or likely would be agreed.
Its headline, and thus the summit's intended signature achievement, was a G7 promise to "vaccinate the world by end on next year," with "concrete commitments" to achieve this goal. The specified measures, expressed very modestly, were "stepping up the manufacturing of vaccines, lowering barriers to the international distribution of those vaccines … and ultimately sharing surplus doses with developing countries bilaterally and through COVAX." Added later was G7 support for a "Global Pandemic Radar." Cornwall would be "a critical opportunity to combine the capabilities and expertise of the world's most influential democracies to defeat coronavirus and lead a global recovery." In this top-line realm, COVID-19 continued to crowd out other things.
The statement later expanded the headline's single vaccination priority to the trilogy of "defeating Covid and leading a global recovery driven by our shared values." Thus leading a global economic recovery from the coronavirus stood second as a publicized priority — to "build back better with a recovery that puts opportunity, sustainability, and democratic values at its heart."
Climate change came third. Having all committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, leaders would be asked to "make strong commitments on cutting emissions, shifting to renewable energy and providing climate finance for developing countries ahead of the UK-hosted COP26 Summit later this year."
In fourth came on trade, levelling up left-behind regions at home, gender and ethnic inclusiveness and education, with the UK asking G7 leaders to contribute generously to the Global Partnership for Education to get more children in the school in the world's 90 poorest countries.
Cornwall's Carbis Bay summit was thus designed to be recognized and remembered as the "Conquering Covid Summit," rather than the "controlling climate change" one.
In the last days before the summit, Cornwall was well on its way to produce a strong success, if not quite in the way that Boris Johnson just said it would. Several significant advances had been agreed, largely based on the commitments made at the ministerial meetings, while others still in dispute likely to be agreed by the leaders themselves when they met on June 11–13. These advances came in the summit's central tests and signature achievements of COVID-19, climate change, commerce, and conflict and competition with anti-democratic forces, with China in the lead (see Appendix D)
On COVID-19 and health more generally, advances would come on six key components. The first was conquering COVID-19's initial and newer, more contagious variants, by meeting their 2020 commitment to ensure the vaccines' manufacture, distribution and, above all, accessibility. G7 leaders would do so by offering more doses and dollars to deliver more vaccines faster everywhere through COVAX, bilateral donations and sharing of intellectual property. The second was domestic production in developing countries and regions, through multilateral, bilateral and private sector paths. The G7 leaders would probably adopt as their overall aspirational ideal the goal of vaccinating the entire world by the end of 2022, following Johnson's call reported on June 5.
The third subject was pandemic preparedness by strengthening the centrality, powers and finance of the WHO and considering the value of a new legal agreement to be negotiated at a special session of the World Health Assembly in November. The fourth was One Health, through stronger research and action on the links among human and animal health, biodiversity, and climate change. The fifth was AMR, an issue with intense animal-human components. And the sixth was universal health coverage and health systems strengthening as a common prerequisite for protecting and promoting the health of all. They allowed the G7 credibly to address the many other health issues diseases that have been set aside and grown due to COVID-19, led by the non-communicable diseases of cancer, heart and stroke, diabetes, respiratory disease, and mental illness, as well as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.
On climate change, G7 leaders will boldly promise to keep global warming below 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, rather than the 2°C target they highlighted at their COP21 Paris Summit in 2015. They will promise to reach net zero emissions for greenhouse gases and biodiversity loss by, or even before, 2050 and could indicate the earlier date that they preferred. They could get Australia to commit to net zero by 2050 and have India and South Africa support this goal.
More immediately, and thus more importantly, they will agree to make their own financial systems climate friendly. They will require from their financial firms mandatory disclosure of climate risks and the climate impacts of their activities. More broadly, they support green budgeting and macroeconomic policy, issuing genuinely green and sustainable bonds, strengthen carbon pricing and taxation and consider border carbon tax adjustments to level the playing field.
On fossil fuel financing they will agree to stop their international coal financing now and end their own fossil fuel subsidies by or before 2025. On energy more broadly, they will hasten phasing out thermal coal use in their own countries, and get Germany, Japan, Korea and even Australia to cut their coal use. They will minimize methane emissions from natural gas well head flaring and pipeline leaks. They will approve stronger standards for energy efficiency in buildings, transportation and industry, and hasten the transition to electric vehicles through regulation, infrastructure and subsidies.
On nature-based solutions, they will promise to preserve and restore forests, peatlands, wetlands, seagrass and oceans, through measures such as helping globally re-grow one trillion trees and promising to make 30% of their lands and oceans natural protected areas by 2030, and even 25% by 2025.
On climate finance for developing countries, they will promise to provide their fair share from public and private sources of at least $100 billion annually by 2025 and more after and could well provide an immediate down payment of more money now.
On commerce, at its macroeconomic core, leaders will reinforce and green economic recovery through supporting, targeting and tailoring fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, while coping with the rising deficits, debts, inflation, interest rates and resulting financial stability concerns within the G7 and the world.
On international tax reform, leaders will approve their finance ministers' agreement on a minimum tax of at least 15% for firms operating in their countries and a tax of 20% of firms' profits, above a 10% minimum, by the government of the country where the firms sales and thus profits were made. They will further commit to having these core features agreed by the full G20 leaders at their Rome Summit in October.
On development, G7 leaders will relive debt and defaults in poorer countries, through official development assistance, the IMF and the World Bank and their mechanisms, as specified by their finance ministers on June 4.
In the summit's international trade and investment component, leaders must chart a course now that the UK has left EU's common market and customs union and the UK and other G7 members seek bilateral trade agreements among and beyond their club, and how these agreements will relate to other initiatives, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area and China's Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
Leaders will promise to curtail and prevent protectionism, strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, through international diversification and domestic rebuilding, in health, other job-rich sectors, and those that will dominate the digital age. This includes the key sector of tourism and travel, given new prominence by the damage caused by COVID-19, and the sector's ability to generate jobs for women and youth in the developed, emerging and developing world. They will start to shape new rules for fair investment, including from state support, for state-owned firms and through screening foreign direct investment.
On digitalization, leaders at Cornwall will shape and support the digital labour force and digital education, and ensure they equally benefit youth, women and girls, and people who are poor, marginalized and vulnerable. They will also promise to ensure people's privacy and safety from digital threats on many kinds.
On conflict and peace and security challenges, leaders will focus on Russia, to country its threatening actions in Belarus, against Alexi Navalny, in Ukraine, its cyber attacks on the U.S. energy system, and election interference in the U.S. and elsewhere. They will also address nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea, terrorism and radicalization in and from Africa and the Middle East, the military coups in Myanmar and Mali and the Middle East peace process.
China is a central issue throughout the health, economic, ecological and security domains. G7 leaders will seek to have China cooperate more on countering COVID and strengthening the WHO, allowing freer, fairer trade and investment and strengthen the World Trade Organization to have its rules apply effectively to all. They will encourage China to do more to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and make effective outcomes at the UN Biodiversity conference it will host in Kunming in 2021. G7 leaders will combine to counter China's threats to security, democracy and human rights in the South and East China Seas, across the Taiwan Straits, in Hong Kong, along its border with India and in Xinjiang.
The Cornwall Summit's strong success if propelled by the current condition of the six causes highlighted in the proven systemic hub model of G7 governance (Kirton 2013).
The first cause, shock-activated vulnerability, is very strong, given the unprecedentedly severe, swift, sustained, widespread deadly and damaging COVID-19, the consequent economic and social contraction, and the compounding crisis of climate change, which is now physically approaching critical thresholds and is politically moving toward centre stage as the diversionary shock of the COVID-19 crowd-out starts to recede, especially in the UK, the U.S. and Canada.
The second cause, multilateral organization failure in responding the these shocks, is also strong. No more major money or power has been yet secured by the WHO, IMF, World Bank, UN Climate or the UN, even with the U.S. now back inside the WHO and the Paris Agreement.
The third cause, the G7's globally predominant and internally equalizing power is solid. Some of the G7's major members led by the U.S. are economically growing more strongly than most other systemically significant countries outside, save for China. Inside the G7, its least powerful member, Canada, is growing strongly too.
The fourth cause, democratic commonality and convergence, is strong. It soared in the U.S. after the presidential and Congressional elections of November 3, 2020. It is strong in Italy and Germany, where anti-democratic populist forces are in retreat, and in Canada, where they never appeared. At Cornwall it will be reinforced by the presence as invited guests of India, Australia, Korea and South Africa to form a new de facto Democratic 11.
The fifth cause, the domestic political cohesion backing the leaders at the summit, is strong. Biden, a newcomer, has a fresh election mandate and his party controls his legislature, if narrowly. Draghi, the second newcomer, is in a stronger position than his predecessor. Suga and the veterans of Johnson, Macron and Trudeau have solid legislative control, even with scheduled or possible elections. And Germany's Angela Merkel, at her last scheduled G7 summit and as host of two successful ones, brings exceptional experience and skill at securing consensus from coalition and sub-federal governments at home.
The sixth cause, the G7 as the leaders' cherished club at the hub of a network of global summit governance, is also strong. Two G7 leaders, Johnson and Draghi, are chairing the G7 and G20 respectively and co-chairing the UN Glasgow Summit. The UK and Italy have been closely coordinating these three summits from the start. They have each mounted a special summit of their G7 and G20 clubs, and their scheduled ones will benefit from the return of in-person summitry after a year and half of virtual summitry in its place. And their global network has expanded, with the many special summits G7 members have mounted, most notably, France and the Netherlands on climate change in January, the US among the Quadrilateral leaders of Japan, India and Australia on March 12, and the US with its Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22–23.
Bayne, Nicholas (2020). "The UK at the G7 Summit: From the 1970s to the 2010s," Presentation to "Recipes for G7 Summit Success for the 2021 UK Presidency," online event organized by G7 Research Group London, December 3.
Cavendish, Camilla (2021). "Now Brexit is 'Done', Britain Must Rebuild Trust with Europe," Financial Times January 1.
Dobson, Hugo (2020). "The UK, Prime Ministerial Leadership and Recent G7 Summits," Presentation to "Recipes for G7 Summit Success for the 2021 UK Presidency," online event organized by G7 Research Group London, December 3.
Economist (2020). "The China Strategy America Needs," November 21.
Economist (2021a). "Britain Needs a Post-Brexit Foreign Policy," January 2.
Economist (2021b). "Britain Has Lost the EU. Can it Find a Role?," January 2.
Financial Times (2021b). "Biden Must First Repair Democracy at Home," Editorial Board, January 8.
Financial Times (2021c). "Finding a New Role for the UK in the World," Editorial Board, January 4.
Forsyth, James (2020). "Johnson's Levelling-Up Mission Starts Now," Times, December 18.
Goodman, Matthew (2021). "The G7 Tests," Center for International and Strategic Studies, May 27, 2021.
Gross, Anna and Jim Pickard (2020). "Johnson Pledges Bigger UK Role in International Response: WHO Funding," Financial Times, September 26, p. 3.
Holder, Josh and Marc Santora (2021). "Hospitals in England Struggle as the Virus Maintains Its Deadly Grip," New York Times, January 15.
Kirton, John (2013). G20 Governance for a Globalized World. Farnham UK: Ashgate.
Kirton, John (2021a). "Facing Global Challenges Face to Face: The 2021 G7 Foreign and Development Ministers Meeting," G7 Research Group, May 3.
Kirton, John (2021b). "The Promising Performance of G7 Foreign and Development Ministers in May 2021," G7 Research Group, May 13.
Kirton, John (2021c). "Prospects for Action from the 2021 G7 Virtual Summit: Will Promises Be Kept?," G7 Research Group, February 20.
Kirton, John (2021d). "Substantial Success at the G7's 2021 February Virtual Summit," G7 Research Group, February 19.
Kirton, John (2021e). "A Successful Start to G7 Summitry in 2021," G7 Research Group, February 25.
Kulik, Julia (2020). "Recipes for G7 Summit Success on Gender Equality," Presentation to "Recipes for G7 Summit Success for the 2021 UK Presidency," online event organized by G7 Research Group London, December 3.
Nardelli, Alberto (2021). "Boris Johnson Plans a Virtual Meeting of G-7 Leaders Next Month," Bloomberg January 12.
Parker, George (2021a). "Curtains and Courtiers: How Much Trouble Is Johnson Courting?," Financial Times May 3, p. 15.
Parker, George (2021b). "Johnson Prepares 'Global Britain' Relaunch in Wake of Brexit," Financial Times, January 4.
Patrick, Stewart (2020). "Up in the Air: Ten Global Summits That Will Test Joe Biden in 2021," Council of Foreign Relations, December 23.
Prime Minister's Office (2021). "Prime Minister to Host Virtual Meeting of G7 Leaders," February 13.
Raab, Dominic (2021). "Human Rights Violations in Xinjiang and the Government's Response: Foreign Secretary's Statement," Oral statement to Parliament, January 12.
Times (2020). "Boris Johnson Has Won Back Power – and Accountability," December 27.
Walker, Derek (2020). "How The Biden-Harris Administration Can Restore and Strengthen U.S. Climate Leadership," Environmental Defense Fund, December 26.
Warren, Brittaney (2021). "Improving G7 Performance on Climate Change," G7 Research Group, April 12.
Warren, Brittaney and John Kirton (2021). "Holding the G7 Environment Ministers Meeting to the Highest Standard," G7 Research Group, May 19.
Year |
Grade |
Domestic political management |
Deliberation |
Direction setting |
Decision making |
Delivery |
Development of global governance |
Participation |
|||||||
# communiqué compliments |
Spread |
# days |
# statements |
# words |
# references to core values |
# commitments |
Compliance |
# assessed |
# ministerials created |
# official-level groups created |
# members |
# countries |
# international organizations |
||
1975 |
A− |
2 |
29% |
3 |
1 |
1,129 |
5 |
14 |
+0.08 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
1976 |
D |
0 |
0% |
2 |
1 |
1,624 |
0 |
7 |
|
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
|
1977 |
B− |
1 |
13% |
2 |
6 |
2,669 |
0 |
29 |
|
0 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
1978 |
A |
1 |
13% |
2 |
2 |
2,999 |
0 |
35 |
+0.14 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1979 |
B+ |
0 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2,102 |
0 |
34 |
|
1 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
1980 |
C+ |
0 |
0% |
2 |
5 |
3,996 |
3 |
55 |
|
0 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
1981 |
C |
1 |
13% |
2 |
3 |
3,165 |
0 |
40 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1982 |
C |
0 |
0% |
3 |
2 |
1,796 |
0 |
23 |
−0.71 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
1983 |
B |
0 |
0% |
3 |
2 |
2,156 |
7 |
38 |
−0.56 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1984 |
C− |
1 |
13% |
3 |
5 |
3,261 |
0 |
31 |
−0.47 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1985 |
E |
4 |
50% |
3 |
2 |
3,127 |
1 |
24 |
+0.27 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1986 |
B+ |
3 |
25% |
3 |
4 |
3,582 |
1 |
39 |
−0.43 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
1987 |
D |
2 |
13% |
3 |
7 |
5,064 |
0 |
53 |
+0.29 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
1988 |
C− |
3 |
25% |
3 |
3 |
4,872 |
0 |
27 |
|
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
|
1989 |
B+ |
3 |
38% |
3 |
11 |
7,125 |
1 |
61 |
−0.07 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1990 |
D |
3 |
38% |
3 |
3 |
7,601 |
10 |
78 |
−0.11 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1991 |
B− |
1 |
13% |
3 |
3 |
8,099 |
8 |
53 |
+0.38 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
1992 |
D |
1 |
13% |
3 |
4 |
7,528 |
5 |
41 |
+0.71 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1993 |
C+ |
0 |
0% |
3 |
2 |
3,398 |
2 |
29 |
+0.57 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
1994 |
C |
1 |
13% |
3 |
2 |
4,123 |
5 |
53 |
+0.71 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
1995 |
B+ |
3 |
25% |
3 |
3 |
7,250 |
0 |
78 |
+0.29 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
1996 |
B |
1 |
13% |
3 |
5 |
15,289 |
6 |
128 |
+0.42 |
23 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
1997 |
C− |
16 |
88% |
3 |
4 |
12,994 |
6 |
145 |
+0.26 |
11 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
1998 |
B+ |
0 |
0% |
3 |
4 |
6,092 |
5 |
73 |
+0.42 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
1999 |
B+ |
4 |
22% |
3 |
4 |
10,019 |
4 |
46 |
+0.45 |
10 |
1 |
5 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
2000 |
B |
1 |
11% |
3 |
5 |
13,596 |
6 |
105 |
+0.74 |
29 |
0 |
4 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
2001 |
B |
1 |
11% |
3 |
7 |
6,214 |
3 |
58 |
+0.47 |
20 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
2002 |
B+ |
0 |
0% |
2 |
18 |
11,959 |
10 |
187 |
+0.36 |
24 |
1 |
8 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
2003 |
C |
0 |
0% |
3 |
14 |
16,889 |
17 |
206 |
+0.61 |
20 |
0 |
5 |
10 |
12 |
5 |
2004 |
C+ |
0 |
0% |
3 |
16 |
38,517 |
11 |
245 |
+0.53 |
33 |
0 |
15 |
10 |
12 |
0 |
2005 |
A− |
8 |
67% |
3 |
16 |
22,286 |
29 |
212 |
+0.65 |
28 |
0 |
5 |
9 |
11 |
6 |
2006 |
B+ |
6 |
44% |
3 |
15 |
30,695 |
256 |
317 |
+0.40 |
28 |
0 |
4 |
10 |
5 |
9 |
2007 |
B+ |
12 |
100% |
3 |
8 |
25,857 |
86 |
329 |
+0.54 |
31 |
0 |
4 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
2008 |
B+ |
8 |
78% |
3 |
6 |
16,842 |
33 |
296 |
+0.46 |
29 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
15 |
6 |
2009 |
B |
13 |
67% |
3 |
10 |
31,167 |
62 |
254 |
+0.54 |
26 |
2 |
9 |
10 |
28 |
10 |
2010 |
C |
10 |
89% |
2 |
2 |
7,161 |
32 |
44 |
+0.53 |
20 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
9 |
0 |
2011 |
B+ |
14 |
67% |
2 |
5 |
19,071 |
172 |
196 |
+0.55 |
18 |
1 |
0 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
2012 |
B+ |
7 |
67% |
2 |
2 |
3,640 |
42 |
81 |
+0.55 |
22 |
0 |
1 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
2013 |
B+ |
13 |
60% |
2 |
4 |
13,494 |
71 |
214 |
+0.58 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
6 |
1 |
2014 |
B |
6 |
44% |
2 |
1 |
5,106 |
42 |
141 |
+0.68 |
21 |
1 |
0 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
2015 |
B+ |
2 |
25% |
2 |
2 |
12,674 |
20 |
376 |
+0.63 |
31 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
2016 |
B− |
22 |
63% |
2 |
7 |
23,052 |
95 |
342 |
+0.45 |
23 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
2017 |
B |
2 |
25% |
2 |
4 |
8,614 |
158 |
180 |
+0.57 |
21 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
2018 |
B+ |
0 |
0% |
2 |
8 |
11,224 |
56 |
315 |
+0.64 |
30 |
1 |
|
9 |
12 |
4 |
2019 |
B− |
6 |
57% |
3 |
10 |
7,202 |
|
71 |
+0.52 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
2020 |
n/a |
0 |
0 |
|
1 |
795[ |
0 (1)a |
25 |
n/a |
n/a |
0 |
0 |
9 |
8 |
4 |
Total |
– |
187 |
– |
119 |
250 |
456,320 |
1270 |
5403 |
– |
545 |
21 |
101 |
393 |
166 |
87 |
Average |
|
4.2 |
0.3 |
2.6 |
5.6 |
10,140.4 |
28.9 |
120.1 |
0.35 |
14.7 |
0.5 |
2.4 |
8.7 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
Cycle 1 |
B− |
0.7 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
2,526.3 |
1.1 |
30.6 |
0.07 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
7.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cycle 2 |
C− |
1.9 |
0.2 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
3,408.3 |
1.3 |
33.6 |
−0.27 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
8.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Cycle 3 |
C+ |
1.7 |
0.2 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
6,446.3 |
4.4 |
56.1 |
0.43 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
8.1 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
Cycle 4 |
B |
3.3 |
0.2 |
2.9 |
6.7 |
10,880.4 |
5.7 |
106.0 |
0.45 |
18.6 |
0.6 |
3.6 |
9.0 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
Cycle 5 |
B− |
7.1 |
0.6 |
2.9 |
10.9 |
23,676.8 |
65.8 |
237.9 |
0.53 |
26.9 |
0.4 |
5.9 |
9.6 |
12.6 |
5.6 |
Cycle 6 |
|
8.6 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
4.8 |
11,564.1 |
82.0 |
212.9 |
0.58 |
24.0 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
9.3 |
6.1 |
3.9 |
Notes:
Last updated by Brittaney Warren, February 11, 2021.
N/A = not available.
Grade: Kirton scale is A+ extremely strong, striking, standout, historic; A− strong; B+ significant; B substantial; B− solid; C small; D very small; F failure (including made things worse).
Domestic political management: # communiqué compliments = the number of favourable references to G7/8 members by name. Spread = number of G7/8 members complimented.
Deliberation: # days = the duration of the summit; # statements = number of official statements issued in the leaders' name; # words = number of words contained in the official statements.
Direction setting: number of affirmations of G7/8 core values of open democracy, individual liberty and human rights contained in official documents.
Decision making: # commitments contained in the official documents.
Delivery: Compliance with selected commitments assessed as follows: 1975–1989 assessed by George von Furstenberg and Joseph Daniels; 1990–1995 assessed by Ella Kokotsis; 1996–2020 assessed by the G7 Research Group. # commitments: number of commitments assessed.
Development of global governance: # ministerials created = number of institutions created at the ministerial level; # official-level groups created = number of institutions created at the officials level. Institutions are created at or by the summit, or during the hosting year, at least in the form of having one meeting take place. Participation: # members = number of leaders of full members, including those representing the European Community from the start; Russia started participating in 1991 and became a full member in 1998; the G4 met in 1974 without Japan and Italy and later that year the G6 (without Canada) met. # participating countries = number of full members plus number of leaders from other countries. # participating international organizations = number of heads of international organizations.
a2020 direction setting: no references to the G7's core values; one reference to the G20's core value of globalization for all.
... So we in the UK we're going to work with our friends, we're going to use our G7 presidency next year to create a new global approach to health security based on a 5-point plan to protect humanity against another pandemic.
Our first aim should be to stop a new disease before it starts. About 60% of the pathogens circulating in the human population originated in animals and leapt from one species to the other in a "zoonotic" transmission. The world could seek to minimise the danger by forging a global network of zoonotic research hubs, charged with spotting dangerous animal pathogens that may cross the species barrier and infect human beings.
The UK is ready to harness its scientific expertise and cooperate to the fullest extent with our global partners to this end. Of the billions of pathogens, the great mass are thankfully incapable of vaulting the species barrier. Once we discover the dangerous ones, our scientists could get to work on identifying their weaknesses and refining anti-viral treatments before they strike.
We could open the research to every country and as we learn more, our scientists might begin to assemble an armoury of therapies – a global pharmacopoeia – ready to make the treatment for the next COVID-19.
Our second step should be to develop the manufacturing capacity for treatments and vaccines so that the whole of humanity can hold them like missiles in silos ready to zap the alien organisms before they can attack. But if that fails and a new disease jumps from animals to human beings and overcomes our armoury of therapies and begins to spread, then we need to know what's going on as fast as possible.
So the third objective should be to design a global pandemic early warning system, based on a vast expansion of our ability to collect and analyse samples and distribute the findings, using health data-sharing agreements covering every country. As far as possible, we should aim to predict a pandemic almost as we forecast the weather to see the thunderstorm in the cloud no bigger than a man's hand.
And if all our defences are breached, and we face another crisis, we should at least be able to rely on our fourth step, and have all the protocols ready for an emergency response, covering every relevant issue, along with the ability to devise new ones swiftly.
Never again must we wage 193 different campaigns against the same enemy. As with all crises, it is crucial not to learn the wrong lessons. After the harrowing struggle to equip ourselves with enough ventilators – with countries scrabbling to improvise like the marooned astronauts of Apollo 13 – there is a global movement to onshore manufacturing. That is understandable.
Here in the UK we found ourselves unable to make gloves, aprons, enzymes which an extraordinary position for a country that was once the workshop of the world. We need to rediscover that latent gift and instinct, but it would be insane to ignore the insights of Adam Smith and David Ricardo.
We need secure supply chains – but we should still rely on the laws of comparative advantage and the invisible hand of the market. Many countries imposed export controls at the outset of the pandemic, about two thirds of which remain in force. Governments still target their trade barriers on exactly what we most need to combat the virus, with tariffs on disinfectant often exceeding 10%, and for soap tariffs for 30%.
So I would urge every country to take a fifth step and lift the export controls wherever possible – and agree not to revive them – and cancel any tariffs on the vital tools of our struggle: gloves, protective equipment, thermometers and other COVID-critical products. The UK will do this as soon as our new independent tariff regime comes into effect on 1st January and I hope others will do the same.
Though the world is still in the throes of this pandemic, all these steps are possible if we have the will. They are the right way forward for the world, and Britain is the right country to give that lead. And we will do so in 2021, as we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of this great United Nations in London in January, and through our G7 Presidency, and as we host the world's climate change summit, COP26, in Glasgow next November. …
Source: "Prime Minister's Speech to United Nations General Assembly: 26 September 2020."
The Prime Minister will call on fellow G7 leaders to make concrete commitments to vaccinate the entire world against coronavirus by the end of 2022 when he welcomes them to Cornwall for the G7 Summit later this week.
This week's meeting is the first between G7 leaders since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. The Summit presents a crucial opportunity to combine the capabilities and expertise of the world's most influential democracies to defeat coronavirus and lead a global recovery.
The UK has led efforts to ensuring the world's poorest and most vulnerable people have access to vaccines. At the outset of the pandemic the UK Government funded the development and production of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, and guaranteed it would be made available at cost around the globe. As a result, almost 1 in 3 vaccines administered around the world have been the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine – 450 million out of 1.5 billion doses.
The UK also worked to establish the COVAX scheme to distribute the vaccine to developing countries, providing a significant financial contribution of £548 million early on and encouraging other countries to commit to the scheme.
COVAX would not have been able to deliver the 80 million doses it already without Oxford-AstraZeneca, which made up 96% of those doses.
The Prime Minister will say to other G7 leaders this week that if we are to end the coronavirus pandemic for good, the world's biggest economies must go further and pledge to vaccinate the world by the end of next year.
That includes by stepping up the manufacture of vaccines, lowering barriers to the international distribution of those vaccines – as the UK has done with Oxford-AstraZeneca – and ultimately sharing surplus doses with developing countries bilaterally and through COVAX.
The UK has already pledged to share a significant majority of its surplus doses with the scheme and later this week the Prime Minister will announce more details of the UK's plans to support developing countries by sharing doses not needed by the UK.
"Next week the leaders of the world's greatest democracies will gather at an historic moment for our countries and for the planet.
"The world is looking to us to rise to the greatest challenge of the post-war era: defeating Covid and leading a global recovery driven by our shared values.
"Vaccinating the world by the end of next year would be the single greatest feat in medical history.
"I'm calling on my fellow G7 leaders to join us to end to this terrible pandemic and pledge will we never allow the devastation wreaked by coronavirus to happen again."
G7 leaders will arrive in Carbis Bay, Cornwall, on Friday for three days of meetings on a huge range of global issues, with a particular focus on how the group can lead the global recovery from coronavirus.
During those sessions they will be joined virtually by experts, including Sir Patrick Vallance, Melinda French Gates and David Attenborough. On Saturday the G7 countries will be joined either in person or virtually by the leaders of Australia, South Africa, Republic of Korea and India for discussions on health and climate change.
As well as asking leaders to join the UK in efforts to vaccinate the world, the Prime Minister will call on them to support the Global Pandemic Radar – a new global surveillance system which will protect immunisation programmes against new vaccine resistant variants by detecting them before they have the chance to spread.
Alongside efforts to defeat the pandemic itself the Prime Minister will stress the need to build back better, with a recovery that puts opportunity, sustainability and democratic values at its heart.
This includes through living up to our responsibility to future generations to protect and preserve our planet. This is the first G7 where all members will have committed to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Prime Minister will ask leaders to channel this ambition and make strong commitments on cutting emissions, shifting to renewable energy and providing climate finance for developing countries ahead of the UK-hosted COP26 Summit later this year.
The Prime Minister will also tell leaders that it is essential that this prosperity is built on a foundation of fairness and opportunity for all – ensuring communities that have previously been excluded can realise the full benefits of global trade. In February G7 leaders committed to levelling up our economies so that no geographic region or person, irrespective of gender or ethnicity, is left behind.
It is expected that the Cornwall Summit will advance the work the UK and other G7 countries have done to make sure all girls have access to 12 years of quality education – the best way to lift communities out of poverty. Next month the UK will co-host the Global Partnership for Education Summit. Later this week the UK will announce its five-year pledge to the GPE, which is working in over 90 of the world's poorest countries to get more children into school. The Prime Minister will also ask other leaders to make generous pledges to the fund.
Source: "Prime Minister calls on G7 leaders to vaccinate the world by end of next year," June 6, 2021.
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