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Impressions of the Birmingham Summit

Nicholas Bayne
17-19 May 1998

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Blair had a good summit. His new format worked well and found general favour. He got most of what he wanted on employment, crime and debt, though not enough on debt to satisfy those demonstrating in the favour of debt forgiveness – see below. He also had a bonus in a supporting statement on Northern Ireland.

There was a better balance and more harmony this year between Europe and the US than at Denver 1997. Though the US economy is still very strong, Clinton has lost ground; he was unable to get Congress to agree on ‘fast-track' authority for trade negotiations or on the release of new money for the IMF. The continental Europeans have gained ground; their economies are in better shape; and the good progress to EMU has given them a political boost. Negotiations took place on the margins of Birmingham to resolve the outstanding EU/US disputes over Cuba (Helms-Burton) and Iran/Libya (D'Amato), leading to a formal agreement at the EU/US summit on 18 May. Chretien meanwhile had a good EU/Canada summit on 14 May.

Japan's position looked vulnerable, with the economy depressed and Hashimoto's stimulus package getting a sceptical reception. But Japan was active in the two new political subjects – Indonesia and Indian nuclear tests. This gave a general Asian slant to the summit: Japan had a chance to shine and Clinton an incentive to be helpful to Japan.


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