Conclusions

This was a harmonious summit, with no open clashes. Even where the leaders could not agree on everything, as on the response to India, they kept the peace. The new format worked well and will be repeated. The heads have gained a freedom of action at their level which they never had before. The price is an ever-expanding G8 apparatus, with more expert groups and special meetings of G8 (or G7) ministers.

Birmingham made no great breakthroughs, but a number of useful advances across a wide field. There was clear progress on crime and debt; and impetus to work at lower levels on employability and the new financial architecture. As usual with the summits, the real test of its success will emerge over the months ahead, which will test whether the G8 live up to their summit commitments and whether they have a real impact on others. For example: will India (and Pakistan) sign the CTBT? Will there be a real acceleration of the HIPC process? Will the new financial architecture be agreed promptly, with clear decisions on how to organise financial supervision – and will it deter further crises? Will there be visible improvements in levels of employment and cross-border crime?

The 1999 summit will be in Cologne on 18-20 June. Apart from this date and place and confirmation that the Germans will stick to the new format, nothing is known of their plans. (This is in contrast to Birmingham, where the crime and employment themes were known a year ahead.) But elections are due in Germany later in 1998, so that serious planning may only begin after the result is known.

In sum, the new, experimental format was successful at Birmingham and will be repeated. But did it improve the summit's performance? Here the record is mixed:

• Many of the advances this year emerged from the careful preparations, notably on employment and the new financial architecture. The leaders endorsed the results - an important function in itself - but seemed to add nothing of their own.
• In areas where their own contribution can be measured, the leaders did well on economic policy (G7) and crime (G8) and moderately on debt/development, while they missed a chance on trade.
• Their responses to the sudden crises were sensible rather than forceful. But thought these attract the media, they are not the summit's main purpose.

On this basis Birmingham, without being outstanding, was a summit of respectable achievement.